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I hope so. Oxtail is pretty outspoken about it
(11-16-2016, 02:28 AM)shagg Wrote: are you a meme?
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About: no pussy gettin homo that post a lot
get him to come here and tell us why
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(06-25-2016, 06:30 PM)Delirious Biznasty Wrote: (06-25-2016, 05:37 PM)grue Wrote: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016...ns-website
People are asking for a re-run because it feels like the brits had no idea of what they were getting themselves into. Scotland and Northern Ireland make a point of staying in the EU and since the UK is leaving, they will leave the UK so they can apply to the EU. Meanwhile, Nigel "Crazypants" Farage has pretty much admitted that he doesn't care about the meaning of the words coming out of his mouth (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/pol...99906.html). The rest of the EU is regrouping so the brits get out as soon as possible, and the backlash so far seems to affect the UK much more than it does the EU (as I assumed it would). "We lost so we want another poll because we need to keep doing it until MY side wins
Talk about a bunch of sore losers
this logic can just as easily be applied to the other side
"WELL we won no need to think critically about this ha ha everyone go home. nope nope the number is there deal with it, the end"
historically, yeah it goes without saying that the vote is the vote and that's that. i just find it funny that its not like, 60/40 its 52/48 (or w/e)
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But it;s still a vote? There's never ever been a precedence to ever vote again because of close polls before
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There's probably never been a precedent of doing the exact opposite of a referendum result but this is europe
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(06-25-2016, 11:29 PM)narcissa Wrote: There's probably never been a precedent of doing the exact opposite of a referendum result but this is europe
Greece bailout
Though the greek issue wasn't as black-and-white as this but that was a referendum that the EC simply ignored and went with the opposite of what was decided. Can it be claimed that they didn't go "against" the referendum? They probably will, they probably can, but anyone with the capacity to discern basic things will tell that it's bogus.
here0s another reason to hate the brits: now every right-wing swamp dweller of a fringe party is getting press time to ask for a referendum because we know they are all about democracy
and the press is buying into it because it's a shocker and it sells!! Sweden wants to leave too! they say. no, the far-right wants to leave, jfc. so does the french far-right and the portuguese far-right holy shit dudes stop giving them coverage they are literal fascists wtf
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(06-25-2016, 10:39 PM)Spastic Wrote: But it;s still a vote? There's never ever been a precedence to ever vote again because of close polls before
(06-25-2016, 10:34 PM)Ben Wrote: historically, yeah it goes without saying that the vote is the vote and that's that. i just find it funny that its not like, 60/40 its 52/48 (or w/e)
i know, i know, and certainly at this point you cant change a rule and then apply it retroactively. i just think in the future this is a consideration that should be made
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so you just keep voting until you hit some arbitrary number in the favor of one side or the other? sounds terrible.
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no- there's a number in statistics called a standard deviation. it isn't really arbitrary, its a well established and important parameter when talking about these things
let's say there's an apartment of 50 people. none of them know each other well, but they all have opinions on whether to repaint the outside of the building pink or green. you take a vote from all 50 people, and 40 or them say green and 10 say pink.
if you keep asking them, opinions will change. people will think about it more, people will lobby, people will move out and new people with new ideas will move in. i know this, but lets pretend we can go back in time, groundhog day style, to get all the data we need without each "trial" interfering with one another
you would notice that on some iterations, it isn't 40/10. it's 41/9, 42/8, 38/12. this is because there is a "fuzz" around that average, which we call the standard deviation. if one day we hit 41/9, we would go "eh yeah thats about 40/10" and paint it green. no matter which way the "standard" (mean) blows (deviates), we are still green > pink because in this case, the standard deviation is about plus or minus 2. what this means in statistical talk is that it is very likely that the result will be within the bounds of ONE standard deviation, and the "tipping point" (25/25) is well, well, well outside of the bounds of one or two standard deviations
if instead the initial vote was 26/24, it would be a victory for green. but if we were curious enough to relive that day and vote again, and again, and again, the standard deviation would blur at 26/24 and 27/25, a victory for green, but also sometimes 25/25 (a tie?) and even 24/26 which would make it pink
my argument is that this number, which is very much not arbitrary at all, may be ~2 or 3%. and if it is, it means that if superman turns back a few days to save lois lane and we have to do the vote over, it is possible it would come out 49/51 and its decided that the UK stays IN the european union
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(06-26-2016, 04:33 AM)Spastic Wrote: so you just keep voting until you hit some arbitrary number in the favor of one side or the other? sounds terrible.
anyway- revoting in that way to get the actual value of the standard deviation is impossible. this means that i am in a way talking out of my ass when i say the standard deviation would be 2 or 3%, HOWEVER thats usually a good measure for these things. if the vote came out 90% in favor of exiting, i wouldnt make this argument at all because its obvious that theres overwhelming support for
like i said, because we have to live in reality and people do change and these trials are not independent of one another, its hard to just take a "second" vote. we wouldnt just "keep voting", i know thats silly. i would say that someone smarter and more wise than me should set a barrier, that the vote cant just pass 50.0000001%... or 51%, or 52%. it should have to pass maybe 55% or 60. MAYBE? again, the actual number is not something i know enough to claim
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the problem that I see with that logic is that it might discourage people from actively seeking out referendums or something of the sort because the 50/50 is a tangible goal but to get a 60/40 in politics is actually pretty rare i think
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my first thought: yes 60% may be much but 55% isnt so bad
my second thought: well, a higher threshold may force people to have better arguments
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06-26-2016, 06:13 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-26-2016, 06:13 AM by narcissa.)
(06-26-2016, 12:10 AM)grue Wrote: (06-25-2016, 11:29 PM)narcissa Wrote: There's probably never been a precedent of doing the exact opposite of a referendum result but this is europe
Greece bailout
Though the greek issue wasn't as black-and-white as this but that was a referendum that the EC simply ignored and went with the opposite of what was decided. Can it be claimed that they didn't go "against" the referendum? They probably will, they probably can, but anyone with the capacity to discern basic things will tell that it's bogus.
here0s another reason to hate the brits: now every right-wing swamp dweller of a fringe party is getting press time to ask for a referendum because we know they are all about democracy
and the press is buying into it because it's a shocker and it sells!! Sweden wants to leave too! they say. no, the far-right wants to leave, jfc. so does the french far-right and the portuguese far-right holy shit dudes stop giving them coverage they are literal fascists wtf
that's obviously what i was referring to
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